Guide · Variance

Freight variance analysis: why freight went over budget, in numbers rather than theories.

Freight is over budget. Was it because more was shipped, or because each tonne cost more? Until those two are separated, every explanation is a guess.

Freight variance analysis splits the difference between actual and planned freight cost into a volume variance (you moved more or less) and a rate variance (each tonne cost more or less), then breaks the rate variance into causes.

The split

PartFormulaQuestion it answers
Volume variance(actual tonnes − plan tonnes) × plan cost per tonneHow much is explained by shipping more or less?
Rate variance(actual cost per tonne − plan cost per tonne) × actual tonnesHow much is explained by each tonne costing more or less?
TotalVolume variance + rate variance = actual cost − plan costThe two always add up exactly

Breaking down the rate variance

Rules for a variance everyone accepts

  1. Price plan and actuals with the same landed-cost formula.
  2. Make the parts add up exactly to the total gap, with no unexplained residue hidden.
  3. Give each cause an owner: transport, plant, procurement or the carrier.
  4. Link every finding to the trips behind it.

Try the freight cost calculator for single trips.

How FreightPlan does it

FreightPlan loads your masters (plants, depots, lanes, carriers, fleet, rate cards and demand) from CSV, validating every row: a bad row is rejected with the reason and the fix, and the rest of the file loads. It prices every option with one landed-cost formula (billable load × rate × (1 + fuel surcharge) + toll + handling) and uses a Google OR-Tools optimiser to choose the plant, carrier and truck type for every depot, in whole trucks, within 1% of optimal, subject to six written rules: demand, plant output, fleet truck-days, carrier share, contracted commitments and whole trucks. Unserved demand is reported, never hidden. At month-end the same formula prices the trip log, the gap is split into volume and rate so the two add up exactly to the total, and the rate gap is split into five causes (empty truck space, rate card, unplanned trips, detention and service), each with an owner and an action.

Questions

What is freight variance analysis?

Splitting the gap between actual and planned freight cost into volume variance and rate variance, then breaking the rate variance into causes with owners.

How do you calculate freight volume variance?

Actual tonnes minus planned tonnes, multiplied by the planned cost per tonne.

How do you calculate freight rate variance?

Actual cost per tonne minus planned cost per tonne, multiplied by actual tonnes. Volume and rate variance add up exactly to the total gap.

See it on your own data. FreightPlan — Budget freight, explain the gap. Book a 30-minute working session with an engineer.

General guidance, current as of the date above. Figures and examples are illustrative unless a source is linked.